Introduction Tensions with North Korea have been waxing and waning for decades now but in recent times the risks seem to have ramped up dramatically as its missile and nuclear weapon capabilities have increased. The current leader since 2011, Kim Jong Un, has launched more missiles than Kim Il Sung (leader 1948-1994) and Kim Jong […]
Introduction The issue of rising inequality has seen increasing interest over the last year or so, particularly following the Brexit and Trump votes for which rising inequality was seen as a key driver. This is an issue we have looked at before in terms of driving a swing to the left amongst median voters in […]
Contrary to our expectations, the Australian dollar has recently broken out of the $US0.72 to $US0.78 range of the last 15 months or so on the upside and spiked above $US0.80, its highest in over two years. So what gives? Why has the $A broken higher? Is it an Australian dollar or US dollar story? […]
Investing is often seen as complicated. And this has been made worse over the years by the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices, regulations and rules around investing, the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets and the expanding ways available to access various […]
The past financial year turned out far better for investors than had been feared a year ago. This was despite a lengthy list of things to worry about: starting with the Brexit vote and a messy election outcome in Australia both just before the financial year started; concerns about global growth, profits and deflation a […]
For much of this year, there has been a surprising divergence between share and bond markets with shares up in response to improving growth and bond yields down in response to weak inflation. Some feared that either bonds or equities had it wrong, but in a way it seemed like Goldilocks all over again – […]
Introduction It's now 12 months since the British voted to leave the European Union, an event that some saw as setting off a domino effect of other European countries looking to do the same. This was also followed by a messy election result in Australia, Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election, increasing […]
Growth slows again Despite numerous forecasts for an “unavoidable” recession following the end of the mining boom early this decade, the Australian economy has continued to defy the doomsters and keep growing. However, recently it seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch. After contracting in the September quarter, the economy bounced back […]
I am regularly called on to provide forecasts for economic and investment variables like growth, interest rates, currencies and the share market. These usually come in the form of point forecasts as to where the variable that is being forecast will be in, say, a year’s time or its rate of return. Such point forecasts […]
Around May each year I normally get a bit wary about the risks of a pullback in shares. It seems the old saying “sell in May and go away…” is permanently stuck in my mind. And of course shares have had a great run since their global growth scare “bear market” lows in February last […]
